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dmcdevilmaycryupdate1releaseLacking spectacular results in the UK General Election campaign, the campaign for the Republic of Ireland has been something of an afterthought. But the outcome may well hinge on how those Irish voters who did come out in support of the candidacy of Better Together leader Alex Salmond, as well as the 14 constituency votes in Northern Ireland, plays out.
More significantly, Irish opinion will be crucial in determining whether the unlikely partnership between Labour Party leader Ed Miliband and Prime Minister David Cameron, largely made possible by the Conservative Party’s continuing troubles at the polls in Scotland and the North of England, comes to fruition.
However, the mainstream media is missing the point. The real question is whether the backing of the SNP for the out and out Labour candidate and Miliband’s support for the hardline DUP leadership will create space for the Conservatives.
This is an election that depends far more on the performance of the Conservative Party, which is falling apart in large parts of the UK and on a remarkable number of issues is surrounded on all sides by controversy, than it is on Scottish politics.
To some extent this is undoubtedly a function of the general lack of quality of the parties represented in the five Westminster constituencies but, even allowing for that, the SNP is in a very strong position and we will see how the new majority in the Scottish Parliament affects Scottish politics and influence.
John O’Connell MP, a pollster specialising in Irish politics said: “Whatever the actions of the [UK] Guardian and other media outlets, the centre of political gravity in Northern Ireland and within Westminster is the UK”.
Speaking about the referendum, the Irish Times editorial of 5 June states: “The significant changes that will take place as a result of last week’s independence vote have left us puzzled.
“Although the prospect of Scottish influence on Northern Ireland politics and vice versa is a negative, it is in many ways a positive – a new sense of common purpose, a new level of trust, friendships that are easier to build because of shared challenges.”
Given the dourness of the red and blue Unionist and Nationalist aspirations it might be more realistic to take more cynical view of what the Irish Times has to say
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